A collection of 7 heuristics to guide decision making under uncertainty which, in our opinion, is all decision making in [[Modern Business]]. >By definition chance cannot lead to long term gains (it would no longer be chance); trial and error cannot be unconditionally effective: errors cause planes to crash, buildings to collapse, and knowledge to regress. The beneficial properties need to reside in the type of exposure, that is, the payoff function and not in the "luck" part: there needs to be a significant asymmetry between the gains (as they need to be large) and the errors (small or harmless), and it is from such asymmetry that luck and trial and error can produce results - Nassim Taleb, [Understanding is a Poor Substitute for Convexity](https://fooledbyrandomness.com/ConvexityScience.pdf) ### Further Reading - [Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (Incerto)](https://amzn.to/3c7fOx5) - [Understanding is a Poor Substitute for Convexity](https://fooledbyrandomness.com/ConvexityScience.pdf)